Q1 is make-or-break (and it's not just "a bit quiet")

Q1 restaurant marketing is where good years are built — or quietly binned. January to March isn't just slower; it's when guest habits reset, wallets tighten, and your team is already tired from the holiday chaos. If you wait until you "need it," you'll end up doing what everyone does: discounting, posting a few desperate socials, and hoping the weather changes.

Here's the blunt bit: around 70% of first-time diners never return (Bloom Intelligence, 2025). That means your busiest months last year didn't automatically create a strong year this year — they created a pile of one-timers you haven't followed up with yet. And your best guests? The top ~12% can drive ~40% of revenue (Bloom Intelligence, 2025). Q1 is the moment to lock them in early, bring back the nearly-lost ones, and set up marketing you don't have to babysit every week.

Let's get you out of panic mode.

The Q1 reality check (why January–March is different)

Post-holiday slump patterns

In the UK, Q1 is the hangover season.

• January: guilt, budgets, Dry January, New Year resolutions, cold weather, and fewer "big occasion" bookings.
• February: a short lift around Valentine's Day (but only if you're ready), then another dip.
• March: daylight shifts, Mother's Day (UK), early spring energy, and Easter planning starts.

The venues that win Q1 aren't necessarily "busier." They're more intentional — they trade random reach for repeat visits, predictable covers, and better margins.

Guest behaviour shifts

In Q1, guests behave differently:

• They book later and cancel more.
• They choose "value" more often (not necessarily cheap — just worth it).
• They're more likely to stick with familiar venues unless you give them a reason to return.

And because guests are 72% more likely to return with personalised offers (Restroworks, 2025), generic "Come try our new menu" blasts won't cut it.

Budget/cash flow realities

Q1 is when cash flow pressure gets real:

• Suppliers still want paying.
• Staffing costs don't shrink as fast as covers do.
• Marketing budgets often get paused… right when you need them most.

The fix isn't "spend more." It's spend smarter: focus on retention, win-backs, and first-party data so you can market without relying on paid ads to do all the heavy lifting.

Q1 trends to watch in 2026

AI-powered personalisation is now table stakes

In 2026, "personalisation" isn't adding someone's first name to an email. It's:

• Sending offers based on what they actually do (not what you wish they'd do)
• Timing messages around likely revisit windows
• Adjusting frequency so you don't spam your regulars into silence

Operators are leaning into AI because manual segmentation is a time-sink. If you're running a venue, you don't have time to build 14 audiences every week. Personalisation needs to be operationally realistic.

First-party data becomes the priority (owned guest databases)

Third-party platforms are useful, but they don't equal ownership.

In Q1 2026, smart operators are prioritising:

• Capturing phone/email at booking, Wi-Fi, loyalty, or order
• Building clean profiles (not duplicates and junk)
• Using that database to drive repeat visits — not just one-off promos

Why? Because the economics are brutal: if 70% of first-timers never return (Bloom Intelligence, 2025), your job is to stop treating every week like you're "starting from zero."

SMS vs email performance shifts

Email still matters — but in Q1, SMS often does the heavy lifting for time-sensitive bookings.

What we're seeing across hospitality:

• SMS wins for immediacy (tonight/tomorrow, last-minute tables, weather-related promos)
• Email wins for storytelling (events, seasonal menus, longer lead times)

The best approach in Q1 is a simple channel split:

• Use SMS for urgency and short windows
• Use email for depth and brand voice
• Use both, but not with the same message copy pasted

Sustainability/ethical messaging expectations (without the preach)

Guests in 2026 expect you to have some values — but they don't want a lecture.

Q1 is the time for practical "proof points":

• local suppliers (name them)
• seasonal ingredients (show what changes)
• waste reduction (e.g., smaller menu, smarter prep)
• staff wellbeing (if it's real — don't pretend)

Keep it grounded: "Here's what we're doing" beats "We care deeply about…"

Local community focus over broad reach

Q1 is not the season for "reach campaigns" to strangers 40 minutes away.

Your best ROI is local:

• nearby offices (January team lunches and March re-onboarding)
• neighbourhood regulars
• families planning Mother's Day
• groups looking for easy midweek plans

Community-led marketing also protects margin. If you pull locals in consistently, you don't have to buy demand with discounts.

Tactical priorities for Q1 (month by month)

January: win-back lapsed guests, database cleanup, set foundations

January is retention season. You're not trying to go viral — you're trying to go steady.

Priority 1: Win-back lapsed guests

A "lapsed" guest might be anyone who hasn't visited in 60–180 days (depending on your venue type). The key is to define it and act.

Industry benchmark: win-back campaigns typically recover 12–15% of lapsed guests (Restroworks, 2025). That's huge in Q1.

Practical win-back message examples:

• "Haven't seen you in a while — want your usual table this week?"
• "New year, same cravings. Pop in Tue–Thu and we'll shout a dessert."
• "Dry January? We've built a proper no-alc list that doesn't taste like punishment."

Keep offers margin-safe:

• add-on value (dessert, side, coffee)
• early-week bouncebacks
• limited redemptions
• minimum spend thresholds where appropriate

Priority 2: Database cleanup (yes, boring — still important)

You can't personalise if your data is chaos.

Do a quick clean:

• merge duplicates
• remove obvious junk contacts
• tag guests by last visit, average spend, favourite daypart (even roughly)

This is where Q1 marketing stops being random and becomes repeatable.

Priority 3: Lock in automation

January is when you build the machine you'll thank yourself for in March.

Minimum automations for Q1:

• first-time guest follow-up (24–72 hours after visit)
• lapsed guest win-back (after X days)
• birthday flow (simple but consistent)
• VIP nurture (top spenders / frequent visitors)

Remember the benchmark: the top ~12% can drive ~40% of revenue (Bloom Intelligence, 2025). Automations protect that relationship when you're busy.

February: Valentine's Day (the obvious one), plus pre–Mother's Day planning (UK)

February is short, so you need to be early.

Valentine's Day: don't overcomplicate it

Pick one strong offer and market it clearly. Common mistakes include six different packages and confusing seating times.

What works:

• set menu with optional upgrades
• clear seatings (and firm deposit policy)
• "anti-Valentine's" option for mates, singles, or the romantically exhausted

Messaging tips:

• to couples: experience, ambience, certainty ("book now")
• to regulars: priority bookings and familiar treatment

Start Mother's Day planning now (UK is March)

If you wait until March, you're competing with everyone at once.

In late February:

• build landing page / booking link
• define set menu vs à la carte
• decide whether you're doing sittings
• prep gift card angle ("Book lunch + add a voucher for later")

If you have guest data, segment likely buyers:

• families who visited Sundays before
• guests who booked for occasions last year
• high-frequency locals who bring groups

Personalised outreach matters because guests are 72% more likely to return with personalised offers (Restroworks, 2025). "Mother's Day is coming" is fine. "Want us to hold your usual Sunday table for Mother's Day?" is better.

March: Mother's Day (UK), Easter prep, daylight savings energy shift

March is where Q1 turns from "survive" into "build momentum."

Mother's Day (UK): get operational and marketing aligned

Marketing can't save a messy service.

Key decisions:

• deposits or prepayment (highly recommended)
• seating duration
• kids options (quick wins: colouring sheet + simple menu)
• clear communication: arrival times, cancellation policy, dietary notes

Marketing sequence (simple, effective):

1. VIP/regulars first (early access)
2. Lapsed guests (win-back angle tied to occasion)
3. General database + socials (last push)

Easter prep

Easter isn't Q1 every year, but the planning often starts in March. Start teasing:

• group bookings
• long weekend hours
• special menu items
• family-friendly options (for cafes/pubs)

Daylight savings: use the "new energy"

When evenings get lighter, guests start shifting back into "after work" behaviour.

Do:

• midweek promotions that don't destroy margin (e.g., fixed-price early dinner, snack + drink pairing)
• outdoor seating messaging if you have it ("first sunny arvo = first round on the deck")

What NOT to do in Q1 (common mistakes)

Panic discounting

Discounting trains people to wait for the next deal — and in Q1 you'll feel that pain quickly.

Better alternatives:

• value-add bundles (higher perceived value, lower cost to you)
• early-week incentives
• member/VIP perks instead of public discounts

Going dark on comms

If you disappear in January, you're basically telling guests: "We're irrelevant until spring."

Even one solid message per week keeps your venue top of mind — especially for locals deciding where to go last minute.

Abandoning automation

When things are quiet, you have time to set up automations. When things get busy again, you won't.

If you only do one thing: set up a first-time guest follow-up. With 70% of first-time diners never returning (Bloom Intelligence, 2025), that's the most preventable leak in the bucket.

Ignoring regulars

Your regulars are your cash flow stabilisers. And the numbers back it: the top ~12% can drive ~40% of revenue (Bloom Intelligence, 2025).

Treat them like insiders:

• early booking access for key dates
• occasional surprise perks (not constant discounts)
• direct, human messaging\

Building Q1 momentum (actionable checklist)

Week 1 priorities (get the foundations right)

• [ ] Define your lapsed guest window (e.g., 90 days no visit)
• [ ] Clean your database: duplicates, junk contacts, missing tags
• [ ] Identify VIPs (top spenders/frequent visitors)
• [ ] Decide your Q1 calendar:
• • Valentine's offer (or anti-Valentine's)
  • Mother's Day approach (UK, March)
  • March midweek hooks
• [ ] Set minimum automations:
• • first-time follow-up
  • win-back flow
  • VIP nurture
  • birthday message

Week 2–4 priorities (turn it into revenue)

• [ ] Launch a win-back campaign to lapsed guests
• • Benchmark: 12–15% recovery is typical (Restroworks, 2025)
• [ ] Build two content assets you can reuse:
• • "What's on in Feb/March" email
  • "Local favourites" post (menus, drinks, seasonal changes)
• [ ] Start capturing more first-party data:
• • booking prompts
  • Wi-Fi capture
  • QR/menu opt-in
• [ ] Train the team on one simple habit:
• • "Ask if they'd like updates for events/offers" (and mean it)

Ongoing habits (the boring stuff that works)

• [ ] Message consistently (weekly or fortnightly) — don't disappear
• [ ] Segment at least into:
• • VIPs
  • recent first-timers
  • lapsed guests
  • locals (if you can infer from postcodes)
• [ ] Review results monthly:
• • repeat rate
  • offer redemption
  • booking lead time changes
• [ ] Keep personalisation light but real
• • Remember: 72% more likely to return with personalised offers (Restroworks, 2025)

Where nollie fits

nollie is an AI-powered CRM built for F&B hospitality — restaurants, cafes, bars, pubs (not hotels). In Q1, it's most useful for turning "we should probably…" into "it's already running."

Specifically, it helps venues:

• Win back lapsed guests with smart segmentation and targeted campaigns (without you building spreadsheets at 11pm)
• Protect your VIPs and regulars by identifying top guests and keeping them engaged
• Automate the essentials (first-time follow-ups, win-backs, occasion prompts) so Q1 marketing doesn't rely on someone remembering to send a post
• Use first-party data properly, so you're not stuck renting attention from ads every January

If you want Q1 to feel less like survival and more like controlled momentum: Book a nollie demo.

Sources

• Bloom Intelligence (2025): State of Restaurant Guest Retention
• Restroworks (2025): Customer Retention Statistics for Restaurants